The Zephyr Lounge’s 2014 Oscar Forecast

Let me start out by saying that those of us commenting on the winners at the 86th Academy Awards have not seen all of the movies being represented here. Some of what we’re going on has to do with our knowledge of industry trends (whether real or assumed), preconceived notions about the panel that selects the winners, and what we have heard about the other nominees. Basically, this list of projected winners is composed by (and is probably also for) those who have not had the money, time, or effort to see every title in contention. Of course, this information is coupled with our notions regarding what we HAVE seen. So, since there are a lot of categories for the chatter, let’s get right down to it.

You can watch the 86th Academy Awards on March 2nd at 7 pm Eastern, only on ABC. Also, please note that not all of the categories are listed and debated upon. We only picked the ones most people care about.

BEST PICTURE

  • American Hustle
  • Nebraska
  • Captain Phillips
  • Philomena
  • Dallas Buyers Club
  • 12 Years A Slave
  • Gravity
  • Wolf of Wall Street
  • Her

Robbie: “Hmm… I’ve seen a few of these. If I were to go off what I think should win, it would either be Her or Dallas Buyers Club. Both films had powerful subject matter, exquisite acting, and great contrast between it’s imagery and it’s score.”

Biscuit: “Unfortunately, 2013 was a year without an action movie. I’m pretty sure the Academy will choose something close to it. I’m going to go with American Hustle.”

Father Philip: “You’re an idiot, Biscuit. They’ll go with something epic, like Wolf of Wall Street or American Hustle. I’m leaning toward the latter. The lack of action movies is what made these contenders possible. The Academy won’t disregard that.”

Lenny: “C’mon, guys. No love for Captain Phillips?”

Robbie: “Hell, the Academy didn’t show any love to The Butler, and I’m pretty sure people are getting tired of seeing movies that involve Tom Hanks in a sketchy situation somewhere out at sea.”

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

  • Christian Bale, American Hustle
  • Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years A Slave
  • Bruce Dern, Nebraska
  • Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
  • Leonardo DiCaprio, Wolf Of Wall Street

Robbie: “Ejiofor, for sure. I hear he’s a pretty good actor. Couple that with the intense subject matter of his film, and bam!, there’s the Academy on their knees for another ‘controversial’ best actor award.”

Biscuit: “Controversial?”

Robbie: “Yes, controversial. Ejiofor, a relative unknown, wins out over Hollywood power players like McConaughey and DiCaprio, whom are both men routinely shafted by the Academy.”

Biscuit: “Oh.”

Robbie: “Yeah. So, who do you have?”

Biscuit: “Bale.”

Father Philip: “I think I agree with Robbie.”

Lenny: “Pass.”

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

  • Amy Adams, American Hustle
  • Judi Dench, Philomena
  • Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
  • Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
  • Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Robbie: “The curse of Meryl Streep returns!”

Father Philip: “No shit! I’m picking her!”

Robbie: “Why?”

Father Philip: “Bet I made with Rodger in accounting. If Streep wins, I win his car. If he wins…”

Biscuit: “What?”

Father Philip: “I can’t say…”

Robbie: “Okay… well, I’m picking Amy Adams. She’s been on the verge of breakout for a while and I hear her performance was amazing.”

Biscuit: “Same.”

Father Philip: “What?! No support?! Lenny?”

Lenny: “Dench.”

Father Philip: “Fuck you guys!”

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

  • Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
  • Jonah Hill, Wolf of Wall Street
  • Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
  • Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
  • Michael Fassbender, 12 Years A Slave

Biscuit: “I’m working on a theory.”

Father Philip: “And that is…?”

Biscuit: “If Hustle wins both Best Picture and Best Leading Actor, then it’s a shoe-in for Bradley Cooper to win. Pick. Made.”

Father Philip: “Bradley Cooper? Dammit, Biscuit. You just wasted a pick.”

Biscuit: “I don’t know. I think Hustle might sweep.”

Robbie: “Oscars have been known to do that. Pick a movie and just run with it.”

Father Philip: “Yeah, and it’s usually disastrous for the Academy’s public perception. It’s like giving a group of four year old girls a choice between Citizen Kane and My Little Pony: Friendship is Magic.”

Robbie: “Hey, Philip. Aren’t you a brony?”

Father Philip: “Fuck you.”

Robbie: “Well, Biscuit is going for the sweep, apparently. I would pick Leto, but I think I might have to give the edge to Abdi. Phillips won’t be entirely snubbed this year.”

Lenny: “I’ll counter and pick Leto. You’re going to kick yourself in the ass for this one, Robbie.”

Robbie: “We’ll see. Father?”

Father Philip: “(grumble, grumble) Fassbender… (grumble, grumble).”

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

  • Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
  • Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
  • Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
  • June Squibb, Nebraska
  • Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years A Slave

Biscuit: “… And with Lawrence, the quad-fecta is complete!”

Lenny: “Quad-fecta?”

Biscuit: “You know, like trifecta, only with four instead of three.”

Lenny: “You have a poor social life, don’t you?”

Robbie: “This answer will be situational.”

Father Philip: “Situational?”

Robbie: “Yeah, meaning that if Situation A happens, then this award goes to such-and-such. But, if Situation B happens, then the such-and-such on the receiving end of this award will be a different such-and-such.”

Father Philip: “Okay… what’s Situation A?”

Robbie: “Biscuit’s theory: If Hustle wins Best Picture and Best Actress, then Lawrence wins.”

Father Philip: “Ugh… and Situation B?”

Robbie: “If Nebraska fails to win anything up to this point, I think they’ll give it to Squibb.”

Father Philip: “Why? You know what? I don’t want to know. I’m picking Roberts.”

Lenny: “Oh, God.”

Father Philip: “Well, who do you have Lenny?”

Lenny: “Lupita something-or-other.”

Father Philip: “Next category!”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

  • The Croods
  • Frozen
  • Despicable Me 2
  • The Wind Rises
  • Ernest & Celestine

All: (unanimously) “Frozen.”

Biscuit: “Well, actually, hold on a second. Miyazaki is retiring.”

Robbie: “So?”

Biscuit: “Well, maybe the Academy will select his film because of that. They’ve made sketchier rulings.”

Robbie: “Uh…”

Biscuit: “I know you were referencing Forrest Gump beating out The Shawshank Redemption at the 67th Oscars when we were discussing Best Leading Actor.”

Robbie: “Yeah, well… You may be… Nah, come on, man. Nobody beats Disney. Especially when Disney’s film makes nearly a billion at the box office.”

Biscuit: Well… I mean… dammit!”

 

BEST DIRECTING

  • David O. Russell, American Hustle
  • Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
  • Alexander Payne, Nebraska
  • Steve McQueen, 12 Years A Slave
  • Martin Scorsese, Wolf of Wall Street

Robbie: “I think McQueen takes this one. Scorsese is a better director, but I think the tone of 12 Years is better than the tone of Wolf of Wall Street.”

Father Philip: “I actually agree with you. McQueen takes it this year. The content of his film, I think, is the hammer driving the nail.”

Lenny: “Yeah. I have to agree also.”

Biscuit: “Well, I think Best Director goes to–“

Father Philip: “We know who the fuck you’re going to choose for Best Director!”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

  • The Act of Killing
  • Cutie and the Boxer
  • Dirty Wars
  • The Square
  • 20 Feet From Stardom

Note: The panel here at The Zephyr Lounge were unable to determine a winner in this category. Father Philip had become so aggravated by Biscuit that he went into the other room to “calm down”, Robbie had a battle with the vending machine over a Snickers With Almond, Lenny got lost coming back from the bathroom, and Biscuit rambled on about ‘American Hustle’ for fifteen minutes.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

  • The Book Thief, John Williams
  • Gravity, Steven Price
  • Her, William Butler and Owen Pallett
  • Philomena, Alexandre Desplat
  • Saving Mr. Banks, Thomas Newman

Robbie: “Well, here’s another movie that has probably gotten shafted at this year’s Oscars.”

Biscuit: “Tom Hanks playing Walt Disney?”

Robbie: “Absolutely. Shaft away!”

Biscuit: “I’ve got Her.”

Robbie: “As do I.”

Lenny: “Same.”

Father Philip: “Well, it’s unanimous.”

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

  • “Happy” by Pharrell Williams, Despicable Me 2
  • “Let It Go” by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez, Frozen
  • “The Moon Song” by Karen O and Spike Jonze, Her
  • “Ordinary Love” by Paul Hewson, Dave Evans, Adam Clayton, and Larry Mullen, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

Robbie: “Adam Clayton, Dave Evans, and Larry Mullen?! Jesus, U2?! Well, I’m crossing that one off my list.”

Biscuit: “You don’t like U2?”

Robbie: “As far as I’m concerned, U2 died tragically in a plane crash in 1989.”

Biscuit: “What’s your pick, then?”

Robbie: “From a personal standpoint, ‘The Moon Song’. Of course, logically, I’m going to have to go with the one from Frozen.”

Biscuit: “Really?”

Robbie: “Dude, you have no idea how many of those fucking soundtracks I’ve sold at work and how many people have bitched when we’ve been out.”

Biscuit: “Good point. I’ll have to agree.”

Lenny: “Same.”

Father Philip: (singing as Tom Waits) “The piiannnooo haaaas beennn drinkin’…”

 

 

BEST WRITING, ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • Before Midnight
  • Captain Phillips
  • Philomena
  • 12 Years A Slave
  • The Wolf of Wall Street

Robbie: “I’ve got Wolf of Wall Street. Anyone object?”

Lenny & Biscuit: “Nope.”

Father Philip: (singing as Tom Waits) “… As the bouncerrr is a suuuumo wrestler cream-puff casper milquetoast…”

BEST WRITING, ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • American Hustle
  • Blue Jasmine
  • Dallas Buyers Club
  • Her
  • Nebraska

Robbie: “Her. It was a compelling story.”

Biscuit: “American Hustle, for the win.”

Lenny: “Dork.”

Father Philip: (singing as Tom Waits) “… And the box-office is drooling, and the bar stools are on fire…!”

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About Robert L. Franklin

Ah, the About Me section - social networking's excuse for you sounding like an elitist prick. Hmm... what to say? What to say?
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